Cutline · Belmont, CA · Nov 3, 2026 ballot

Measure Y: 33¢ per square foot to build — and run — a new Barrett Community Center

Citizen initiative special tax. Big numbers first. Financing path under study is bonds repaid from the tax — cash-stack pay-as-you-go is not viable per Councilmember McCune (personal, Sep 18). Closure length and dance-studio relocation are not stated in official measure materials. Sep 18 outreach = non-binding views, not ordinance.

MapWhat will your parcel pay? Click your parcel →measure-y-parcel-cost.grok.me · unofficial estimate, not a tax bill
33¢per sq ft · dwelling floor area
54¢per sq ft · all other buildings’ floor area
~$7.1Mestimated year-1 revenue
bondspath under study — build sooner; ILLUSTRATIVE ~20 yr debt svc can consume most of ~$7.1M
~10/~12yrs cash-stack arithmetic only · path McCune says not viable
~$676per household / yr (citywide avg)
~3.0–4.3planned sf per household

1 · What Measure Y is

HOLDS

New Barrett Community Center — not a light remodel. The City Attorney’s impartial analysis and the ordinance text authorize a special tax “for constructing and operating a new community center,” with spending priorities for construction, operations, staffing, maintenance, and programs at the new Barrett Community Center.

HOLD WHAT “IMPROVEMENTS” MEANS

Ordinance definitions (primary: SMC ACRE resolution PDF / Res. 2026-69): “Improvements” means all buildings or structures erected or affixed to the parcel. “Square footage” means the total gross horizontal areas of all floors (including usable basement/cellars and porches; excluding parking/loading and certain outdoor/semi-outdoor areas and street-level arcades open to the public).

Tax base = existing (and future) building floor area — for houses, your living / building floor area under that formula, not renovation upgrades. Same-footprint remodel adds $0 Measure Y; added floor area adds +33¢ × new sf / year.

CITY COST CONTEXT STILL OPEN

City of Belmont’s Community Center project page (Group4, Q4 2022) projected $67.6–$69.3 million to build the building and amenities concurrently — a planning cost estimate, not a fixed price written into Measure Y. The measure funds construction and ongoing operations/programs from an ongoing square-footage tax (~$7.1M year one), not a one-time bond amount. Locked $68–84M budget in the measure: still NOT in ballot.

CAMPAIGN / EMAIL HOLDS WITH CAVEAT

Belmont Community Foundation (Sep 17, 2026) pointed supporters to buildbelmonttogether.vote and Yes-on-Y organizing (Jim Howard among Yes-on-Y organizers (argument paperwork)). Campaign site: Barrett built 1949 for ~5,500 residents; city now ~27,000; facility described as past useful life (leaks, failing systems, code gaps).

BCF President Ulla Foehr ([email protected], Sep 18): BCF supports the measure but “we are not the campaign”; points to Yes on Y contact. Treat as BCF/advocacy — not City of Belmont.

2 · Per household & years framing (bond path under study; cash-stack arithmetic demoted)

PER HOUSEHOLD (DERIVED)

Campaign/city still frames Belmont at about ~27,000 residents (Barrett built for ~5,500; ~2.5 persons/household). Citywide tax/build/space averages use ~10,500 households (U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts Belmont city, CA — Households, 2020–2024). Illustrative averages — the tax is billed per building sq ft, not per household (~$7.1M year-1 also includes non-dwelling parcels at 54¢):

No official “daily capacity / users per day” figure is published in Measure Y materials.

HOLDS WITH CAVEAT CONTEXT BOND / LOAN PATH UNDER STUDY (~$80M ILLUSTRATION)

Path under study (elevated). Councilmember Tom McCune (personal email, Sep 18, 2026 — not official City/Council position) states the common formula: sell bonds for construction, repay from the tax over time; staff studying options; instrument/terms not locked. Ballot/ordinance still does not name a loan, bond, or COPs.

Cost planning band is roughly ~$68–84M (~$80M midpoint / campaign–city project-cost figure; Strinden / city deck all-in ~$83.8M) vs ~$7.1M/yr yield — not a locked instrument. Ulla (BCF advocacy): low-interest bonds; ~5–6 years complete from summer 2027.

If the city borrows roughly ~$80M (planning midpoint — not named in the ballot) and dedicates year-1-rate revenue to debt:

Do not invent a locked $80M loan or Council-adopted terms. Financing instrument/terms in the ballot remain NOT STATED.

CONTEXT HOLDS WITH CAVEAT REJECTED AS PATH CASH-STACK ARITHMETIC (REJECTED AS PATH)

Not the city’s plan. McCune (personal, Sep 18 — personal opinions footer, not official City/Council): “waiting until the fund from the measure accumulates to a level adequate for construction is not a viable option. Construction costs are increasing too fast.” Grade: HOLDS WITH CAVEAT / CONTEXT (personal email).

Measure Y meters ~$7.1M/yr (from Jul 1, 2027) into a restricted fund for construction and operations — not an upfront $70M check and not a bond written into the ballot. Pure cash-accumulation arithmetic only if all year-1-rate revenue went only to capital (labeled arithmetic only / path McCune says not viable):

Group4 FAQ separately says schematic→construction ≈ 36–42 months once the budget is approved — that is build time after money is lined up, not years of tax collection.

This is new construction / replacement, not a light remodel of the 1949 Barrett building. Remodel volume does not fund the measure. Do not present ~10/~12 yrs cash-stack as the city’s plan.

NOT STATED IN BALLOT HOLDS WITH CAVEAT STILL OPEN

How does ~$7.1M/year become the ~$68–84M lump sum in time to build? Independent primary-source check (impartial analysis, Res./ordinance, Group4 Oct 2025 packet, city Conversation page, Build Belmont Together) still finds the bridge mechanism NOT STATED in ballot docs. Ordinance spending priorities allow Special Fund use for constructing/expanding/remodeling or financing facilities — that permits financing costs but does not name instrument, terms, or a cash-stack schedule. Cash-stack rejected as viable per McCune (personal Sep 18 — not Council vote) while the financing instrument is still not adopted by Council.

Outreach caveat — not ordinance: The following is from Sep 18 email replies. Councilmember McCune’s statements are personal opinions, NOT an official City or Council position (his footer disclaimer). Ulla Foehr speaks for BCF support, not as the campaign and not as the City. Do not treat either as adopted financing policy.

Councilmember Tom McCune · personal · Sep 18, 2026

[email protected] — personal opinions; open-meeting disclaimer; not Council-adopted.

BCF President Ulla Foehr · BCF · Sep 18, 2026

[email protected] — BCF supports but “not the campaign”; not City of Belmont.

CONFIRMED STILL OPEN HOLDS WITH CAVEAT

Scoreboard · prior NOT STATED cards after Sep 18 outreach

Speaker caveats apply. McCune ≠ ordinance. Ulla ≠ City. Ballot text still controls what is locked. McCune’s cash-stack view is HOLDS WITH CAVEAT (personal / staff-direction) under financing — kept there, not graded as a wrong initial-question claim.

CONFIRMED (with speaker caveats)

  • Tax until voters end — McCune (personal); Ulla (BCF)
  • Household math ~$594–600 / 1,800 sf or $666 / 2,000 sf — McCune; Ulla
  • HOLDS WITH CAVEAT Bond path under study; cash-stack not viable as a path — McCune personal / staff-direction understanding — NOT Council-adopted
  • Stanford $5M failed — McCune
  • BCF furnishings/tech aspirational if pass — Ulla
  • Citizen initiative process — McCune
  • Belmont GF revenues FY2023-24 adopted ~$30.3M — EPS Table 6
  • Peer GF scale figures (PA / SM / RWC / SC) from peer city adopted budgets
  • Measure Y ~$7.1M Year-1 = restricted special fund (not GF)
  • Godbe 2025: 57.6% uninformed → 63.3% informed yes on 33¢/54¢ center tax (n=361, ±5.09%)
  • FAQ: reuse considered first; new construction recommended
  • Existing Barrett uses + BRSSD joint-use fields / summer indoor
  • Peer facility funding stacks (Menlo Park / Foster City / Burlingame / RWC / Palo Alto / Millbrae)
  • Local pool/gym/meeting inventory (Highlands, Carlmont summer, Twin Pines, SMCL, Facilitron)

STILL OPEN / NOT LOCKED

  • Official Council-adopted financing instrument & terms
  • Committed grants covering tax burden
  • HeartBeat / tenant guarantee — McCune: staff will look; Ulla: keep using buildings during Ralston-side build — tension / unverified
  • Locked $68–84M construction budget in ballot
  • Closure duration / tenant guarantees still NOT in ballot
  • Full Godbe questionnaire instrument (slide paraphrase only; no separate instrument PDF)
  • Native Belmont FY2025-26 GF revenue total from city adopted-budget PDF
  • Adopted remodel-only or distributed-only CIP if Measure Y fails
HOLD CONFIRMED CONTEXT HOLD WITH CAVEAT REJECT OVERSTATES UNCONFIRMED

Polling — CONFIRMED vs UNCONFIRMED

Lead numbers from the 2025 Godbe PDF. Keep instruments separate. No Yes/No call here.

CONFIRMED (primary · Godbe 2025)

57.6% → 63.3% yes on a community-center building-sf tax at 33¢ residential / 54¢ commercial — same rate shape as Measure Y — ~$7.1M/yr, until ended by voters (senior exemptions, audits). City PDF doc 25138; fielded July 7–15, 2025; likely Nov 2026 Belmont voters; n=361; ±5.09%; landline/cell/text-to-online; weighted gender/age/party.

  • Uninformed 57.6% yes → after information 63.3% yes (definite yes never above 22.4%)
  • Lower rate 26¢/43¢ → 64.1%; 30-year sunset instead of until-voters-end → 53.9% (weaker than open-ended)
  • City Conversation update 8/26/2025 (“well above simple majority / slightly below two-thirds”) matches informed 63.3% and links this same PDF

CONTEXT / NOT WHAT MEASURE Y ENACTS Godbe framed a council 2/3 special tax. Measure Y is a citizen initiative → majority. Do not collapse “below 2/3” into “will fail under Measure Y rules.”

Footnote: percents as printed on slides; MoE ±5.09% on the full sample.

CONTEXT Separate instruments (do not merge)

  • 2024 Godbe “Revenue Measure Feasibility” = business-license tax restructure (~$1.3M), not a community-center parcel tax. n=302. REJECT / NOT WHAT WAS TESTED — do not cite 59.2%/65.4% as prior center support.
  • Conversation survey n=253, self-selected priorities (closed by 2/12/2025 update). Charts = “# times selected,” not voter %. Top future: modernize safety 152, expand programs 135… emergency shelter 55 (near bottom). City page “everyone agrees … emergency shelter” OVERSTATES / RHETORIC vs chart. Keep 253 off the Godbe tax-poll sample.

UNCONFIRMED / still open

  • Advocacy exact % (~60–64% Ulla / ~57.6% BCF) can now be graded against Godbe: ~57.6% matches uninformed; ~60–64% sits near informed 63.3% — still advocacy when uncited, but no longer “no public instrument.” Prefer citing Godbe over advocacy.
  • Full questionnaire wording still only as paraphrased on slides (instrument PDF not separate).
UNCONFIRMED NEEDS MORE DATA

Needs more data

Items still open — do not treat as locked or disproven:

WHAT A RESIDENT PAYS TOWARD THE REBUILD CONFIRMED

Billed on your home’s building / living floor area (ordinance: sq ft of improvements = gross floor area) at 33¢/sf/year (dwellings), starting tax year 2027–28, until voters end it — not a one-time rebuild invoice. Illustrative household bills (rate frozen; real bills may rise with allowed CPI/income bumps):

Dwelling sizeMeasure Y / year~10 yrs (≈ $68–69M all-in capital clock)~12 yrs (≈ $84M band)
1,500 sf~$495~$4,950~$5,940
1,800 sf~$594~$5,940~$7,128
2,000 sf~$666~$6,660~$7,992
2,200 sf~$726~$7,260~$8,712
Citywide avg (~10,500 HH)≈~$676/HH≈~$6,760/HH≈~$8,112/HH

Those multi-year totals are not a payoff that stops the tax: the ordinance keeps collecting for ops + debt service + programs after the building opens, until voters repeal it. McCune (personal) and Ulla both treat the “until voters end” reading as correct. 65+ owner-occupants can exempt their dwelling (annual application). Same-footprint remodels add $0 Measure Y; added floor area adds +33¢ × new sf / year, on top of any Prop 13 reassessment.

3 · How long do comparable centers take?

MUNICIPAL COMPARABLES

Belmont has not published a Measure Y design→open schedule. Nearby California municipal examples (primary city pages):

Footnote: Exact Belmont duration will depend on final scope, phasing, and whether programs move off-site — none of which is locked in the ballot ordinance.

4 · How long will THIS Belmont center be closed?

NOT STATED STILL OPEN

Reviewed official materials — City Attorney impartial analysis, Resolution 2026-69 / ordinance text, City “Community Center Conversation” page, and Build Belmont Together campaign pages — do not state how many months or years Barrett will be closed, whether demolition is full-site, or any phased temporary-service plan during construction.

Outreach (non-ballot): McCune (personal) — if measure passes, demo likely ~2–3 years later (design/permit/bid), with staff seeking alternate facilities for tenants. Ulla (BCF) — claims current buildings remain usable during Ralston-side construction. Those statements do not fill the ballot gap and are in tension with each other; treat closure duration as still NOT in ballot.

Campaign language warns of “sudden closure” risk if the building fails, but that is advocacy about the status quo — not a construction outage schedule.

5 · What opponents add

OFFICIAL NO SIDE · CONFIRMS GAPS

Official No side is Silicon Valley Taxpayers Association (SVTA) — Primary Argument Against (Elizabeth C. Brierly, Director) plus Rebuttal to Favor. Rebuttal signers include former Belmont Mayors Pam Rianda and Coralin Feierbach, plus David Altscher, Kristin Mercer, and SVTA President Mark W. A. Hinkle. Site: svtaxpayers.org (lists Belmont Measure Y as a recommended No). No separate FPPC “No on Y” committee name found in the ballot PDFs.

Their claims largely confirm cutline gaps rather than invent a rival financing model:

Vote-No framing: rejecting a permanent tax without a defined project ≠ rejecting any future community center.

6 · Where does the dance studio go?

NOT STATED (official) STILL OPEN IDENTIFIED (tenant)

HeartBeat Dance Academy lists its main location + office as “Barrett” — 1835 Belburn Drive, Belmont — with a secondary studio “Crystal” at 774 Polhemus Road, San Mateo. Classes for 2026–27 are advertised at Barrett.

No City of Belmont, parks, Measure Y ordinance, or impartial-analysis language reviewed here assigns a temporary dance venue during construction or guarantees return space in the new building.

Outreach (non-ballot): McCune (personal) — if measure passes, staff will seek alternate city facilities; some tenants may move offsite. Ulla (BCF) — claims current buildings usable during Ralston-side construction. Tension / unverified against an adopted city plan; no HeartBeat guarantee. HeartBeat’s existing Crystal Springs studio remains the only publicly listed alternate address.

7 · Peer revenue / General Fund scale

HOLD CONTEXT

Belmont is not Palo Alto, San Mateo, Redwood City, or San Carlos on General Fund scale. Sourced GF (or closely labeled budget) figures put Belmont’s adopted GF revenues in a lower band than those larger Peninsula cities. Measure Y’s Year-1 ~$7.1M is a restricted Community Center Special Fund — not a General Fund expansion and not interchangeable with the GF lines below.

HOLD CONTEXT

Hero / context numbers (sourced)

City / metricYearAmountNote
Belmont GF revenues (adopted)FY2023-24~$30.3M ($30,282,994)EPS Table 6 citing Belmont Adopted Budget
Belmont operating budget (incl. fire)FY2025-26~$81M (~$94M w/ CIP)SMC Daily Journal — not a GF-revenue line; GF deficit discussion ~$1.4M
Palo Alto GF revenues (adopted)FY2026$301.2MAdopted Operating Budget
San Mateo GF revenuesFY2025-26~$175.8MAdopted budget schedule
Redwood City GF revenues (adopted)FY2025-26~$206.9MLocal reporting of June 23, 2025 adoption
San Carlos GF revenuesFY2023-24 actual / FY2024-25 update~$65.9M / ~$57.2MAnnual report; Adopted Update budget book
Measure Y Year-1 special taxfrom Jul 1, 2027~$7.1MInto Community Center Special Fund (restricted)

Sources: peer city adopted budgets / CAFRs / finance dashboards (Palo Alto, San Mateo, Redwood City, San Carlos); Belmont via EPS Table 6 citing Adopted Budget; Measure Y yield from City Attorney impartial analysis.

CAVEAT CONTEXT

GF size alone does NOT prove poorer/wealthier or capacity. Assessed value, reserves, grants, enterprise funds, population, and CIP mix differ. Do not invent peer rankings from these budget lines. Capacity to fund a ~$68–84M capital project depends on AV, voter willingness, reserves, grants, and competing needs — not GF revenue rank alone.

CONFIRMED STILL OPEN

8 · Peer funding pattern (how others pay)

HOLD CONTEXT

Mid-Peninsula peers rarely use an open-ended square-footage special tax for both capital and ops. Typical stacks for community centers / pools / gyms are reserves, lease-revenue debt, private capital + existing GO authority, impact fees, or a general sales tax to the GF — not a forever dedicated sf special tax that funds construction and ongoing ops. Atherton omitted (out of scope).

Vs Measure Y: dedicated ~$7.1M/yr special tax (dwelling/other improvements) until voters end it, for construction and ops into a restricted Community Center Special Fund. That combined, open-ended structure is the outlier among the peers retrieved below.

HOLD CONTEXT

Documented peer stacks

City / projectCapital / ops stackVs forever sf special tax
Menlo Park Belle Haven Community CampusMeta private build + City enhancements via Measure T recreation GO bonds; City ops = GF / fees (no dedicated campus ops tax found)Closest full campus+pool municipal comp — finite debt service / one-time private capital, not forever ops tax
Foster City Rec Center rebuildCAAR capital fund + GF reserves (~$55–65M path; total project budget approved ~$65.0M)No new voter facility tax
Burlingame Community Center$52.3M: lease-revenue bonds (~$39M proceeds) + reserves/GF; debt service ~$2M/yr = Measure I sales tax + GF through 2049Finite amortization; bonds cannot fund ops
Redwood City Veterans/Senior CenterLease-revenue + developer impact fees; adjacent YMCA aquatics separate (Y fundraising)Not a parcel/special tax
Palo Alto CubberleyMeasure J general ½¢ sales tax to GF (nonbinding spending guidelines; simple majority) — not a locked special taxStructurally different from Belmont’s dedicated special tax
Millbrae Recreation CenterMeasure II GO failed (~62% Yes; needed 2/3); still rebuilt via insurance / fees / city fundsFailed bond ≠ no facility

Sources: peer city budgets / CIP / FAQs / ballot results. Some dollar splits remain secondary — grades stay HOLD for the documented mechanism, not every cited secondary dollar.

HOLD CONTEXT

9 · Alternative facilities

HOLD NOT WHAT MEASURE Y ENACTS

Measure Y funds a new Barrett Community Center — not a remodel-only CIP. The City Attorney’s impartial analysis frames the special tax for constructing and operating a new community center. City FAQ (Oct 2025 packet): reuse of existing buildings was considered first, then recommended new construction for age, poor condition, inefficient layout, and security/functionality challenges.

HOLD CONTEXT

What Barrett hosts today

Staff report: classrooms used for full-time licensed childcare, afterschool, and multi-generational recreation.

HOLD CONTEXT

Joint use & distributed capacity already in play

ALTERNATIVE CONTEXT

Existing inventory residents can use

Pools, gyms, and meeting rooms already in the area — fees, schedules, and eligibility vary; this is not a claim that everything is free forever. Many rooms and pools are fee-based or joint-use. No single Belmont site matches a full CC+pool+gym stack. Distributed assets can cover some program purposes — but the City FAQ already preferred new build over reuse for Barrett itself.

Pools

Gyms / indoor recreation

Meeting / community rooms

Schedules and fees change — verify on Highlands Rec, Belmont Parks & Rec, SMCL, Facilitron, and Menlo Park recreation pages before treating as current. Evolving peer aquatics (e.g. RWC YMCA / San Mateo MLK) are not listed as stable Belmont drop-in substitutes here.

ALTERNATIVE NOT WHAT MEASURE Y ENACTS

Policy alternatives (not what Measure Y enacts)

Policy options — not city commitments and not what Measure Y enacts. Each must state what it drops (pool / gym / shelter sf / modern code standard). Special fund is restricted to the new community center construction / ops / programs framework (impartial analysis) — not a free “distributed only” spend.

CONFIRMED HOLD STILL OPEN

10 · Nextdoor community thread (advocacy / discussion)

NEXTDOOR · NOT BALLOT CONTEXT

Community discussion — not ballot text. Thread: nextdoor.com/p/SQ6bMj3xq2w9/ (11 comments; no in-thread image slides). Commenters cite a city presentation and debate tax design. Treat as advocacy/discussion, not ordinance or impartial analysis.

HOLD HOLDS WITH CAVEAT RHETORIC / POLITICAL FRAMING

Timothy Strinden · cites city deck 10/14/25

Strinden cites the City of Belmont / Group4 Community Center Master Plan presentation to City Council (Oct 14, 2025) estimate of ~$83.8M all-in; argues ~12 years of tax for construction alone; notes the tax also funds existing ops; and frames that there is no guarantee of a new building. Deck p.20 cost bands (2025 Q2 dollars):

Scope (city deck p.20)Project budgetGrade
Community Center alone (Phase 1)$59.9M ($59,925,500)HOLD
CC + outdoor pool$68.8M ($68,846,500)HOLD
CC + gym$74.7M ($74,713,700)HOLD
CC + pool + gym (single phase)$83.8M ($83,827,200)HOLD

2025 Updated Cost Estimate — Belmont Community Center Preliminary Options (deck p.20)

Chart from City of Belmont / Group4 Community Center Master Plan presentation to City Council, Oct 14, 2025 (deck p.20). Planning estimates — not a locked Measure Y budget. See also Needs Assessment / Group4 cost update on belmont.gov.

CONTEXT

Other commenters (not ballot text)

Claim grades

ClaimGradeLead number / note
Measure Y funds a new community centerHOLDOrdinance: construction of new Barrett CC
33¢ / 54¢ per sq ft tax (improvements = building floor area)HOLDImpartial analysis + Sec. 23-302; “improvements” = buildings/structures — not renovation upgrades
Ulla “0.33 cents/sf”UNITS SLIPUnit wording slip, not a different rate; $0.33×2000=$666 holds; 0.33¢×2000≈$6.60
~$7.1M first yearHOLDCity Attorney analysis
Needs 2/3 vote (this cycle)OVERSTATED if applied hereInitiative → simple majority; 2/3 rises after this year (Ulla framing)
Godbe 2025 informed 63.3% / uninformed 57.6%HOLDPrimary PDF doc 25138; n=361; ±5.09%; likely Nov 2026 voters; 33¢/54¢ · ~$7.1M/yr · until voters end
City 8/26 qualitative (above majority / below 2/3)HOLD WITH CAVEATSummarizes informed 63.3%; omits uninformed 57.6% / rate / sunset alts; 2/3 frame ≠ Measure Y majority
30-yr sunset weaker (53.9%)HOLD · CONTEXTGodbe alt test; lower than until-ended-by-voters informed 63.3%
2024 Godbe 59.2%/65.4% as center supportREJECT · NOT WHAT WAS TESTEDBusiness-license restructure (~$1.3M); n=302 — not community-center parcel tax
Conversation survey n=253 as tax pollCONTEXTSelf-selected priorities; multi-select counts — not Godbe tax-poll sample
“Everyone agrees emergency shelter”OVERSTATESCity page vs chart: emergency shelter 55 selections, near bottom of future desires
Survey ¢/sf forever wordingHOLD WITH CAVEATGodbe tested until-ended-by-voters + 33¢/54¢; slide paraphrase only (no separate instrument PDF)
Polling ~60–64% (Ulla) / ~57.6% (BCF)HOLD WITH CAVEAT · advocacy when uncited~57.6% ≈ uninformed; ~60–64% near informed 63.3% — prefer citing Godbe
City cost ~$68–69M (2022)HOLD as estimate · STILL OPEN as locked budgetNot Measure Y’s fixed budget
~$676/household/yr · ~3.0–4.3 sf/householdHOLD as derived÷ ~10,500 HH (Census QuickFacts); tax is per sf; illustrative citywide avg
~10/~12/~19–24 yrs cash-stack arithmeticHOLD as arithmetic only · REJECTED AS PATHMath only; McCune personal: not viable — do not present as city plan
“Improvements” = buildings/structures; sq ft = gross floor area of all floorsHOLDSMC ACRE Reso PDF primary; tax base = existing/future building floor area — not renovation upgrades
Bridge / financing instrument in ballot docsNOT STATEDNo instrument/terms in measure text
~$80M bond path · ~11 yrs principal-only · ~5–6%/20yr debt-service illustrationHOLDS WITH CAVEAT · CONTEXTCampaign/city cost vs $7.1M yield — not locked; SM fold: ~5–6%/20yr can consume most/all of $7.1M/yr; capacity ~$80–120M+ by rate/term NOT official; ballot instrument NOT STATED
Bond path under study (common formula: bonds + repay from tax)HOLDS WITH CAVEAT · CONFIRMED (personal)McCune personal Sep 18 — staff studying; instrument/terms not locked; NOT Council-adopted
Tax until voters endCONFIRMEDOrdinance + McCune personal + Ulla
1,800 sf home ~$594–600/yr · 2,000 sf ~$666CONFIRMED33¢×sf; McCune + Ulla math OK
Stanford $5M materializesCONFIRMED (did not)McCune: did not materialize
Cash-stack to fund constructionREJECTED AS VIABLE (McCune personal Sep 18)Quote: “not a viable option… costs… increasing too fast” — personal email, not Council vote
BCF pays construction $STILL OPEN / aspirationalUlla: furnishings/tech if pass — not construction $ committed
Official financing instrument & termsSTILL OPENUnder study; not locked
Center closed X monthsNOT STATED · STILL OPENBallot silent; McCune ~2–3 yrs to demo vs Ulla continuity — tension
Dance studio temporary site / guaranteeNOT STATED · STILL OPENHeartBeat has Crystal Springs secondary; no city guarantee
Belmont GF ~$30.3M (FY23-24 adopted)HOLD · CONTEXTEPS Table 6 citing Belmont Adopted Budget
Belmont ops ~$81M / ~$94M w/ CIP (FY25-26)HOLD · CONTEXTSMC Daily Journal — not GF revenue; GF deficit ~$1.4M noted
Peer GF: PA $301.2M · SM ~$175.8M · RWC ~$206.9M · SC ~$65.9M/~$57.2MHOLD · CONTEXTPeer city adopted budgets / CAFRs — Palo Alto, San Mateo, Redwood City, San Carlos
Measure Y = new Barrett CC (not remodel-only)HOLD · NOT WHAT MEASURE Y ENACTS (for remodel path)Impartial analysis; FAQ reuse→new construction
Reuse considered first, then new build recommendedHOLD · CONTEXTCity FAQ Oct 2025
Existing ~16,370 sf vs planned 31–45k; Hideout/preschool/HeartBeat (5 rooms)HOLD · CONTEXTFacility page + staff report + HBDA
BRSSD joint use Fox/Ralston/Central/Nesbit + summer Ralston gym/MPRHOLD · CONTEXTJoint-use staff report; BRSSD facilities
Intensify rentals / expand joint use / phased remodel / distributed onlyALTERNATIVE · NOT WHAT MEASURE Y ENACTSMust state what drops (pool/gym/shelter sf)
City deck p.20: CC $59.9M · +pool $68.8M · +gym $74.7M · all-in $83.8M (Oct 14 2025)HOLDAs presented on city/Group4 deck; not locked in Measure Y
~12 yrs tax for construction alone (@ $83.8M)HOLDS WITH CAVEAT$83.8M ÷ $7.1M ≈ 12 if all-in capital; longer if ops share
“No guarantee of a new building”RHETORIC / POLITICAL FRAMINGMeasure funds new center; does not lock schedule/scope
Peers rarely use open-ended sf special tax for capital+opsHOLD · CONTEXTPeer city budgets/CIP/FAQs/ballot results; Measure Y ~$7.1M/yr until voters end is outlier
Menlo Park BHCC: Meta + Measure T; ops GF/feesHOLDClosest full campus+pool comp; not forever ops tax
Foster City Rec: CAAR + GF reserves (~$55–65M path)HOLDNo new voter facility tax
Burlingame CC: $52.3M lease-revenue + Measure I/GF through 2049HOLDFinite debt service; bonds ≠ ops
RWC Veterans/Senior: lease-revenue + impact fees; YMCA aquatics separateHOLDNot a special tax
Palo Alto Cubberley Measure J: general ½¢ sales tax to GFHOLD · CONTEXTNot locked special tax
Millbrae Measure II GO failed; built via insurance/fees/cityHOLDFailed 2/3 bond ≠ no rebuild
Highlands Rec / Carlmont summer / Menlo Belle Haven·Burgess poolsHOLD · CONTEXTHighlands Rec / Belmont Parks & Rec / Menlo Park recreation pages; fees/eligibility vary
Winter outdoor-pool economicsCONTEXTOps cost / low winter demand — not proof Measure Y pool fails
BRSSD Facilitron gyms · commercial gyms · city rentalsHOLD · CONTEXTFee-based / joint-use; not free forever
Belmont Library SMCL · Twin Pines Senior/Lodge · nearby librariesHOLD · CONTEXTMeeting capacity already in play
Distributed assets cover some needs without forever sf taxALTERNATIVE · CONTEXTCareful: FAQ preferred new build for Barrett; fees vary
Stephanie: prefer fixed assessmentCONTEXTNextdoor advocacy; not ballot text
Peter White: sales tax vs thin commercial baseCONTEXTNextdoor advocacy; not ballot text
Prompt / intention (from request): Research Belmont community center / Measure Y from BCF email + primary sources; answer (1) project & tax, (2) per-household & years-to-fund, (3) typical comparable build duration, (4) Belmont closure length, (5) dance-studio relocation — publish verified cutline on grok.me.

Sources (public URLs / named documents only):

Parcel cost map (estimate per parcel; click your parcel): measure-y-parcel-cost.grok.me

Ballot / city: San Mateo County ACRE Measure Y impartial analysis (City Attorney Scott M. Rennie); City of Belmont Resolution 2026-69 & ordinance; SMC ACRE special-tax resolution PDF; 2025 Godbe Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey (doc 25138); 2024 Godbe (business-license — not center tax); belmont.gov Community Center Conversation; Needs Assessment / Group4 cost update; city schematic PDF; City / Group4 CCMP Council presentation Oct 14, 2025 (deck p.20 cost bands); buildbelmonttogether.vote; HeartBeat Dance Academy; RPV Ladera Linda.

Peer / facility context: peer city adopted budgets, CIP pages, FAQs, and ballot results (Palo Alto, San Mateo, Redwood City, San Carlos, Menlo Park, Foster City, Burlingame, Millbrae); Highlands Recreation District pool pages; Belmont Parks & Rec aquatics / rentals; SMCL Belmont Library; BRSSD / Facilitron; Menlo Park Belle Haven & Burgess pools.

Outreach (Sep 18, 2026 PT — not ballot): Councilmember Tom McCune ([email protected]) — personal opinions, NOT official City/Council position; BCF President Ulla Foehr ([email protected]) — BCF supports, “not the campaign,” not City.

Community discussion (advocacy, not ballot): Nextdoor thread nextdoor.com/p/SQ6bMj3xq2w9/ (11 comments); Timothy Strinden citing city/Group4 Oct 14, 2025 CCMP Council presentation p.20 cost bands ($59.9 / $68.8 / $74.7 / $83.8M); Stephanie (fixed assessment) & Peter White (sales tax / commercial base) as CONTEXT only. Do not endorse Yes or No.

Updated Sep 28, 2026 PT — floor-area (“improvements”) wording clarified from SMC ACRE ordinance defs; pay-as-you-go / cash-stack demoted after McCune email (personal Sep 18); bond path elevated as path under study (ILLUSTRATIVE ~$80M · ~5–6%/20yr). Alt-facilities / scrub pass: consolidated prior reuse / inventory cards into one Alternative facilities section; scrubbed internal research-pack filenames and unpublished local paths from the public page; Sources footer lists public URLs / named documents only. Per-household averages: citywide tax/build/space ÷ ~10,500 households (U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts Belmont city, CA — Households, 2020–2024); pop ~27,000 kept as campaign/city context only — not the tax/build/space denominator. Ballot/ordinance still does NOT name loan/bond/COPs — instrument NOT STATED; not a Council vote.